Episode 4: One Armed Dude and Three Moms

Due to a busy work schedule, this blog will be sweet and to the point.

As usual, this week opened with a plethora of Redemption Island drama. Brad was ceaselessly "(Nina) Acosta'd" by Candice and company. After the first episode of the season I got the impression that Brad was a complete meat head but after this episode I feel that he is actually a decent guy that has simply been hammered by bitter losers. Anyone in a leadership role would take the heat from people voted out of the game regardless of their character. When Brad was voted out, he showed tact for both his fellow tribe mates and for Candice and John. Though it's always supremely awkward when someone tries to give hugs or handshakes after a vote out, I thought Brad handled it very well.

Seeing Marissa lose the dual stirred little emotion in me. I felt bad that Gervase played a big part in her ouster but I don't think that she would have made it much further in the game regardless.
As for the idol clue, it should really be called the idle clue because it did nothing to help anyone find an idol. Maybe this will be the first season where no one finds the idol. Probst always loves to say, "Historically, having an idol has been extremely helpful in the game," which is true to a point. Possessing an idol gives you hard power to save yourself in addition to soft power which you can use to leverage deals. However, I would like to quickly look at the history of hidden immunity idols. In the 16 seasons prior to Blood vs. Water, seven winners have found hidden immunity idols. That's a surprisingly high number considering that only 44 idols have been found and 287 players have had the chance to find an idol. That means that 15% of people who have the chance of finding an idol end up doing so and of those people who find the idol, 16% go on to win the game. In terms of hard power, the idols have never saved the holder from getting voted out. However, the idol definitely has certainly helped players propel themselves to the end. In Redemption Island, Boston Rob's possession of the idol certainly helped squash the possibility of his allies turning on him. Additionally, in Cook Islands Yul used the idol to help leverage Penner's vote at the merge. In Yul's case, his idol was so powerful that for him to leave the game, he would have had to have been voted off twice so making it to the end was certainly an easier road for him. Despite the statistics, I'm still not convinced that getting an idol helps you win the game more often than not. Just take the example of Todd in China or Parvati in Micronesia. They both found idols but did not keep them and still went on to win.

Enough idle chatter and back to this season. By far the best part of the episode was the scenes involving the coconut bandits (#coconutbandits). I can gush about Tyson all day, but these moments brought back all the reasons why I was excited to see Gervase back. It's rare that a dynamic duo emerges that I like but when there is such a pairing it makes the show so much fun to watch. I think back to watching Boston Rob and Sean in Marquesas or Tom and Ian in Palau. I can only hope that these two guys will stay together to the very end!

Courtesy of Rob Cesternino

Sometimes I really despise the promos for upcoming episodes because they can give away the result of the future. For example, CBS touted this episode to have a major power shift so when Tadhana went to Tribal Council it was pretty clear Caleb or Ciera were not going to go home. Though it was a blindside to Brad, his ouster was hardly a surprise to careful observer of the show. Time will tell whether the move will pay off but I think Caleb is now a lock for the merge. I see him teaming up with Ciera and Katie to take out Hayden in the coming weeks. However, once the merge rolls around we will see if Caleb has a chance of making it far. At this point, I certainly have my doubts.

This coming week I will have much more time to write about the next episode but that's all I have time for during this cycle.

As always, you can follow and send feedback to me on Twitter @RobsFactChecker where I live tweet during the West Coast broadcast.

Thank you for reading!

Episode 3: Opening Pandora's Box

Pandora's Box as seen on Big Brother

By the conclusion of this episode, it was clear that Pandora's Box had been split wide open. Hayden warned us that a blindside within the Five Guys alliance "could be like opening Pandora's Box" and that came to fruition. Additionally, the box was already bursting open before the "truel" on Redemption Island when Colton quit the game. We are only three weeks into Survivor: Blood vs. Water and already it is looking to be one of the more memorable seasons. Having loved ones in the game is proving to be one of my favorite twists since the Medallion of Power the three-tribe format in the Philippines.

Everybody online has been abuzz in regard to Colton's exit from the game and his continued fall from grace. One must look back before the airing of One World to find his peak in Survivor popularity but it's hard to believe anyone even liked him then. Regardless, the overwhelming consensus has been that Colton made a rash and selfish decision, he deprived someone else of having a spot on the show, he shouldn't have gotten off the couch etc. I'm not a Colton apologist but I may sound like one by the time you read my line of reasoning. In every one of his post-show interviews, Colton revealed that the main reason behind his quit was to help propel Caleb further in the game.* This did little to change most people's minds but it completely changed my perspective. As it should be clear to everyone, this is not a "regular" season of Survivor, it's Blood vs. Water. Therefore, ordinary lines of logic do not apply. Quitting on Survivor never gets you further in the game (unless maybe you are Ozzy and re-enter the game through Redemption Island) but on this season, a lot of duos are just hoping that one in the pair wins the game. Thus, it is possible that quitting was his best move, as he admitted to Jeff. To break down Colton's strategy, he opted to pull himself from the game so that if Galang lost again, they would have to vote another member from their own tribe out (instead of Colton), which would help Caleb. Secondly, Colton was convinced that Caleb would switch with him if he were sent to Redemption Island so his actions prevented Caleb from even having the choice of switching places. I don't think Colton is a great player of the game but I also know that he is quite intelligent and wouldn't quit for absolutely no reason. Speaking of quitting, when did Jeff become Winston Smith from 1984 and have the power to change past history? One might suggest he retroactively took away Dawn's immunity challenge victory in South Pacific when he confidently declared that her win in Caramoan was her first but alas. Jeff just doesn't have his facts straight here. I appreciated his anger with Colton but that doesn't mean he gets to change the fact that Colton did not quit in One World.

Aside from the Colton drama, Tyson had a rough road throughout the episode. The show opened with a closeup of his cupcake belt. For the record, I would take a bite or lick Tyson's cupcake...but only because the thought of food would never escape my mind. However, the high of Tyson's time at camp would come crashing down at the Redemption Island arena. His beloved Rachel was ousted by the Five Guys. Though I was sad to see her go, it lead to many touching moments. Firstly, Tyson deferred to her about the decision to switch. Rachel earns major points for considering their best interest and not her own at the time. Hats off to that. Secondly, Rachel's loss led us to see a whole new side of Tyson. After watching two seasons of this goofy jokester, it was almost shocking to see him shed a few tears. I usually don't like seeing players coming back repeatedly (see my blog on Episode 1 for a detailed explanation) but these moments make it somewhat worthwhile.

In his last appearance on Heroes vs. Villains, after Colby lost to Coach in the first challenge, Tyson playfully quipped,"He's gotta be like... I might as well just become a woman. Because there's no point in trying to maintain my masculinity now."
 Though I love this side of Tyson, prophetic Tyson is also compelling to watch on TV. Survivor tends to steer clear of breaking the fourth wall but it gave Tyson some lenience to talk about the Survivor experience: "It is a game, you know? Too many people take it too serious and it shouldn't be and it ruins their lives and makes them angry." On the heels of Colton's quit, it's easy to see how he ties into this quote. However, it also makes the viewer think about other people who were particularly bitter after the show (e.g. Grant after being blindsided by Boston Rob). In the case of someone like Debb Eaton, the fans and media are culpable for disrupting the contestants life but many former survivors draw too many parallels between Survivor and real life. This is always a debate I find interesting but one where I also have a strong opinion. Firstly, I don't like the framework of the debate because I reject the idea that there is anything different than "real life." If you are alive, then you are experiencing real life. Life is like a clock that is continually running. It doesn't get paused or put on hold due to any circumstances. Taking a trip, doing something spontaneous, or going on Survivor are all part of "real life." Just because you leave your sense of normal (having a family, going to work, going to school etc.) does not mean your real life stops. Though I strongly believe this to be true, I still think that the actions of individuals on the show cannot be translated to who they will be outside of the show (or what others might label "real life"). Despite the continuity in every person's life, Survivor has a specific goal that is not found in other aspects of life. The structure of Survivor is set up in a manner that produces one winner and 15-19 losers depending on the given season. However, in everyday life, there is no limit to the number of people that can "win." Therefore, the manners in which people act in each situation will be different. A kind and charitable person outside of Survivor may become a more selfish person within the game but it does not make them a selfish person. Rather, it just shows how people will react when placed in contrived situations. The difference may seem nuanced, but I think it's an important distinction.



Back to Tyson, his roller coaster ride was not yet finished. There was still time for him to have his shoulder popped out of its socket before the end of the episode. Hopefully his vow at Redemption Island remains valid:

The immunity challenge, first used in Palau, evoked many fond memories of Coby defeating redneck James. This season's rendition of "Sumo at Sea" proved to be quite memorable as well. We saw mothers battle their own daughters (both happily and reluctantly) in addition to the rivalry between Aras and Vytas. Though I am more of a Vytas fan, it was a great moment to see Aras win and proved once again that having family members on the same season creates compelling story lines. I'm guessing most people missed it but Kat had a great line from the sidelines when Aras had Vytas pinned. She yelled, "Aras, you show that downward facing dog who's boss!"

                           


Back at the poor Tadhana camp, we learned that John was getting to be be pretty good friends with Brad. Not in a homosexual way though, that's for sure. Unfortunately, Brad wasn't feeling the love and decided instead that it would be nice to make Marissa the most unfortunate third wheel in Survivor history. For his betrayal and desire to vote out John without even casting a vote his way, Vytas called out his "sheistyness." I'm not sure if this word has ever been used on the show before but I loved it.

There were a few other funny moments in the episode that I will list at the end:

1. During the previously on Survivor recap, we see Jeff explaining to the contestants, "You are no longer loved ones, you are competitors." Ah! So their bonds of love/blood/marriage are now null and void? Interesting.
   .
2. Before quitting the game, Colton had the chance to say something completely moronic: "These people are nothing like the people I played with in One World." Did he forget that 25% of his tribe are the exact people that played with him last time? Apparently so.
    
3. The most ironic quote of the episode goes to Gervase when he offered advice at Redemption Island: "Tone it down, Marissa!" Wasn't this the guy whose mouth directly led to her ousting? I think he should take his own advice before dishing it out so readily.
    
4. I liked how Brad likened Tyson's jabs toward the Tadhana tribe as "throwing arrows." Who throws arrows? I though to myself. Many people shoot arrows but few throw them. Then I remembered that in Guatemala, there was an atlatl challenge, making Tyson the first contestant to throw an arrow on the show in eight years!
   
                              
5. Lastly, I loved this entire exchange between Vytas and Brad before the challenge:

As always, you can follow and send feedback to me on Twitter @RobsFactChecker Normally I live tweet during the West Coast broadcast but I won't be able to do that for Episode 4. 

---

* Colton admitted that this did not make it on the show because he didn't want to reveal his true motive. If everyone knew he was quitting for Caleb, the strategy would be self-defeating. 

**Shout out to @Erik_Nelsen for fact checking the Fact Checker. 

Episode 2: Rule In Chaos

The honeymoon period of the premiere is over and now we are starting to settle into the season. Majority alliances have been formed on both sides and the first person has left the game. I was quite enamored with the first episode and found the second one to be pretty enjoyable as well.

After Jeff’s recap, we settle into the Galang camp where Colton complains that the “Zen, calm, yoga mentality” has finally become too much to deal with. I was not a Colton fan in One World but I had at least a bit of hope that he could come off better this season. However, I have no sympathy for someone who can’t appreciate an island vacation. Though he bemoans, “I came to play Survivor,” Colton is showcasing his ineptitude when it comes to conceptualizing and understanding the essence of the game. Unless you are a Boston Rob or a Brian Heidik, Survivor doesn’t work for you. To be a successful player you must roll with the punches and find ways to ingratiate yourself among the rest of your tribe mates. Regardless of whether you like massage lines, if the majority is into it, you should be too! The same goes for your work ethic: if you are on a tribe of workaholics, show that you can pull your own weight. However, if you are on a tribe like Samburu, where the mallrats rule the roost, there’s no reason to work hard because it does not correlate with your survival rate in the game. I know that Colton has a great strategic mind but he is still a terrible player.

Despite the unbearable amount of screen time devoted to Colton, we at least got a great perspective about the relative size of Tina and Gervase’s arm tattoo. I’m not sure whether Colton, Aras and Gervase are giants, the camera is playing tricks or Tina is really a tiny human being. In any case, I found this image quite comical. Additionally, we learned that Gervase sports a large tattoo on this left arm in memory of his original Pagong tribe. Luckily for him, if he wants to commemorate his time on this season, he could get “Galang” tattooed on his right arm while maintaining the same letter size and having two tribe names that rhyme!

At Redemption Island, Jeff appears on screen wearing a classic Survivor: Borneo hat. For years, Jeff has shown his preference for wearing this particular hat. I always find it pretty ironic because he is always so adverse to maintaining classical elements of Survivor (a final two, no idols, no Redemption Island etc.). To quote a recent article from Gordon Holmes, Jeff likened the evolution of Survivor to the use of steroids: “I look at it more like baseball. They juice up the ball a little bit, there’s more homeruns, it’s more exciting for the audience.” SOURCE Though I am not adverse to some change on Survivor, I hate to think that the steroid era will exist forever on Survivor.

Back to the game at hand, Rupert lost the duel and had to be the first person to leave the game. He joins the list of players who left the game without being voted out. Regardless of his early exit, I don’t think his legacy will be disrupted too much. Similar to his time on Survivor Israel, he made a short appearance doing the best he could but ultimately failing. For those that love Rupert, this was a self-less way to go out and showcases his loyalty and character. To the dissenters, Rupert doesn’t do anything to change their minds. Therefore, Rupert goes out of the game doing nothing to alter his public perception.

At the Galang camp, I was overjoyed by the relationships being created before my eyes. The anti-Colton/Kat/Lauras alliance was the amalgamation of all of my favorites: Tyson, Aras, Tina, Gervase (and Monica). I couldn’t be happier about the alliance and look forward to its success throughout the game. Furthermore, the Tyson and Aras bromance hit new levels. Dubbed “Arson,” this duo was seen intimately sitting around the fire with the rest of the tribe. It’s so rare that all of my favorite players end up in an alliance but these scenes proved to be exceptions to the normal rule.

Sweet lovin'

With the characterization of Colton as the “gay Russell Hantz,” I began to wonder how many times Russell has been mentioned on the show. Besides his three appearances on Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains and Redemption Island he has never escaped the mind of contestants. In Nicaragua, Chase and Shannon talked in the first episode about the rivalry between Boston Rob and Russell Hantz. In South Pacific, Russell appeared on our screen as Coach spoke about flashbacks he had while looking at Brandon. At the reunion of the same season, Russell blasted his nephew. I’m certain he was mentioned on One World, Philippines and Caramoan but these examples escape me. If anyone has insight, please let me know! Despite my disdain for Russell, I will never deny the immense impact he has had on the franchise.

Watching the challenges is never something I find wildly interesting but I do love to listen for Jeff Probst’s inappropriate, out of context quote of the week. Especially when balls are involved, but at any time, Jeff says something during a challenge that can sound quite sexual when heard in a vacuum. I will try to provide at least one line each week.




After the challenge, Brad threw a fit about Jarvis (is he on this season?). His tantrum was wildly reminiscent of Robb Z.’s post-challenge thrashing of Clay in Thailand. It brought back great memories so I have to thank Brad for that.


The animal imagery on Survivor is quite spectacular. As we came back from a commercial, we were greeted by a close-up of a giant click beetle (oxynopterus mucronatus) and the assurance that the show is rated PG. Our worst fears are realized just a few minutes later when the Tadhana beetle is seen ripped to shreds. Tadhana does mean destiny so is their fate doomed like the beetles?

Tadhana by Day 39?

Before Tribal Council, Vytas talks at length about his alliance, or is he giving airtime to his sponsors? He repeatedly name drops Five Guys so many times that I’m surprised we didn’t get some product placement.



Seeing Rachel go home was seemingly uneventful until we got a sneak peek at next week’s Survivor when the Five Guys alliance’s strategy seemingly came into play. The preview so definitively shows Tyson giving up his shot in the game to switch with Rachel that I have to be certain that the opposite will happen and he lets her battle it out for herself. Whether you’re a new fan or a longtime watcher, everyone should know that the previews are meant to deceive.


As always, you can follow and send feedback to me on Twitter @RobsFactChecker where I also live tweet every week during the West Coast broadcast.

Episode 1: Blood is Thicher Than Anything

With the dawn (Meehan) of every new season, there exists a possibility that we will come to know new and interesting personalities. During seasons with returning players, this is harder to achieve because we already know all of the characters. It has been my experience that  most people who return end up marring their original reputation or leave the game adding nothing to their legacy. Even three and four time-returning players such as Russell, Rupert and Ozzy have played the in virtually the same manner each and every time they have come back. I have no interest in watching these people play because they have no ability to change. Other characters have proven to be compelling upon their return because we see new aspects (both positive and negative) about their character. In this group I would place people like Coach, Penner, Cirie, Stephenie and Jerri. Upon each of their times coming back we got to see a multi-season story arc. Lastly, I would classify a small selection of players as those who have completely changed their original reputation. All-Stars created a whole slew of these people in the likes of Jenna L., Amber and Boston Rob. All of these people had minor influences on their original seasons but completely dominated the season in which they returned. In the case of Boston Rob, he altered the course of Survivor history as a result of the way he played the game. In this same group I would also add Parvati, Cochran and even Dawn who significantly improved upon their original characterization. I'm not saying that everyone else who has returned has been insignificant but these 14 players seem to stand out among the rest. That's just 25 of the 53 people that have played more than once (prior to the premiere of Blood vs. Water). Of the people coming back this season, we can only hope that more than a quarter will stand to improve upon the past.

Out of the ten returning players, I am most excited to see Aras, Gervase, Tina and Tyson back. This is a combination of nostalgia and personal preference. Using my above classification, I don't feel that Aras or Tina have much to gain coming back besides coming out victorious a second time a la Sandra. However, it can certainly be argued that Tina wants to restore her image after being the first to leave the game in All-Stars. Similarly, Tyson is surely looking to recover from his blunder in Heroes vs. Villains. If he can show some strategic thinking that doesn't blow up in his face and people just think of him as that silly guy then his time on the show ill be a success but nothing will change about his overall perception. The only way Tyson can do this is if he happens to make it deep into the game on the merits of his game. I was hopeful that Gervase would have learned lessons in the last thirteen years but it seems that he did not take swimming lessons nor learn the lesson of humility. If seeing Marissa on Redemption Island isn't a huge wake-up call for Gervase, I will be both worried and disappointed. I definitely feel bad that Candice had to be the first one voted off from Galang but at the same time she has no business being back. She fits right into the same category as Russell, Rupert and Ozzy: the people who play the same game over and over to no avail. In the case of Monica, Laura and Kat, they will have to make some big moves to greatly change their reputations otherwise they will just be seen as average grade players. I'm open to see what they might do but I'm not gong to be holding my breathe. Colton is the one person that I think has the most to potentially gain by coming back. So long as he isn't a blabbering idiot he will come out of this season looking better. The first episode certainly showcased his dramatic side but it also showed the duality within Colton: the person who struggles to be accepted as a homosexual yet outwardly shows an equal disdain for others (as he did towards Kat in the challenge). I know that previews on Survivor are usually misleading but I fear Colton is going down the wrong track.

In the case of the newbies, I saw a good amount of potential. For one, we actually heard each of them every person on the season. The last time that happened was in Heroes vs. Villains when there was a two hour premiere. Before that, Guatemala was the last premiere to feature every contestant having at least one confessional. I applaud the editors immensely for this! Going into the season I had high hopes for Vytas and he fully lived up to my expectations. The guy proved that he has an interesting past (the addict redemptive story arc is one we've never seen before) and that he has a natural inclination to play the game. He told us that he isn't keen on going against the majority alliance but at the same time he realizes that alienating anyone is not going to work in the long run, especially in a season with Redemption Island and so many other twists that can ruin an otherwise successful game plan. Caleb showed his knowledge about the game but at this point I'm not gushing for him the same way that many other fans seem to be doing. My other favorite had to be Katie. She wasn't exactly compelling but she seems to be someone who will learn on the fly and hopefully will evolve into a real force by the later part of the game if she can improve her puzzle skills! Hayden and Ciera are people who I will continue to keep my eye on but did not blow me away after one episode. It's still so early but I hope their stories will develop along with the season. As for the biggest crier, John, I am glad he did not switch with Candice but I'm not as stoked about the fact that he's still in the game. I can only hope that Candice is eliminated from the game very soon which causes him to go into a murderous furry against the rest of the tribe. That would move him up my rankings significantly. Until then we must endure. The only person that disappointed me was Rachel. I hope she can have a better future but I was not getting great vibes from her. Lastly, I'm more than okay that Marissa and Laura were "voted out." Marissa came off much more intelligent than I had expected but Laura I could take or leave at any point. Oh wait, how could I forget about Brad, the biggest meat head of all the meat heads! This guy reminds me of a cross between Russell and Jimmy T. He has a sense of strategy and seems to not want to be around any women except his wife (this is where he strays from Russell). However, he is simply grating to watch which makes him feel reminiscent of the former Sears Application Contest. He seems like the prime person to have a moderate amount of success before his game implodes on itself. I can't wait for that to happen! Even more likely, I can see him losing the game as he tries to preserve Monica.

As for the episode as a whole, I found it to be surprisingly character-driven. I thought that kind of show was lost eons ago. Hearing every person speak on a 20 person season is nothing shy of a miracle! The Day 0 twist was mainly ineffective on impacting the game but I will not discredit it because it set up a great way to introduce the viewers to all of the contestants. I feel that every season could benefit from a 90-minute premiere so I'm glad that has been a more common trend in recent seasons. I mentioned it earlier but the opening sequence introducing each couple was so refreshing to the usual introduction of three or four dominant characters that will rule the season. It reminded me of the introductions given in the first couple seasons just with modern flare. I'm worried that the honeymoon period with this season could come to a crashing halt after the next episode but I will get to watch it live on my birthday which hasn't happened since episode 2 of Gabon five years ago!

I've never blogged about the show before so I may eventually create a more rigid structure to my recap but only time will tell. The only thing I will definitely NOT do is to just rehash everything that happened in order. Anyone who watched the episode saw what happened and shouldn't have to hear about the same events over again. Thanks for reading and tune in again after episode two of Survivor: Blood vs. Water!

Follow me on Twitter @RobsFactChecker where I live tweet every week from the West Coast broadcast.

Pre-Game Thoughts

People often ask me why I watch Survivor. I am always ready to provide a detailed explanation but I usually find that it works best when you compare your love for the show with the dedication that many people show for sports teams. Ever year it is the same game but the players change. Additionally, both fan relationships are based in love, hope and dedication. No matter how horrible a season may have turned out, true fans continue to come back year after year. This doesn't mean that fans can't be vocal about the show/team's failings. That kind of discourse is certainly encouraged Therefore, it is acceptable for people to gripe while simultaneously loving Survivor.

For me personally, I always get excited for the start of any season especially after a long summer hiatus. Blood vs. Water proves no exception to the rule despite the plethora of twists. Is it Survivor that we will be watching or Jeff Probst's Fantasy Island? In either case, I am appalled that Redemption Island is back but am also a bit pleased by how much they have changed the set up. Besides the fact that people can be leaving the game without getting voted out or that one lucky loser can be voted out four times, I kind of love the absurdity. If the producers want to disrupt the game, they may as well let out all the stops! I'm hoping that some loved-ones will switch at the RI duels just to mix up the tribes a bit. I also have my fingers crossed that this season will be rife with examples of people overplaying the game. I think this cast seems relatively likeable so it should be a fun season to watch.

Loved Ones Assessment and Power Rankings

 In all honesty, I only skimmed the bios of each of these players and watched one video where they shared an interview spot with their loved ones. In any case, I am stretching that minute amount of information into broad generalizations. Enjoy!

#1 Vytas Baskauskas


It could be my bias for Aras coming though yet again but this guy seems like the most calm bad ass I have ever seen. He overcame a drug addiction and now leads a fruitful life. The challenge of Survivor should be a piece of cake for Vytas and I really hope he takes it all.

#2  Katie Collins

 
Watching the Australian Outback I had no idea that the girl we saw in Tina's IM chat would later be on the show giving it a go herself! I feel she has a firm grasp on who she is and could go far in the game. I'm wary that she will have the killer instinct to win it all though.

#3 Rachel Foulger

 
If she can stand being around Tyson 24/7, the other hooligans on the island should be a breeze to deal with. I think her social skills will be fine but I don't know if her strategic mind will be ready to compete with 10 players who have already had s hot at Survivor.

#4 Hayden Moss

I have only seen a couple seasons of Big Brother but I happened to watch BB12 where Hayden and the Brigade went all the way to the end. I was never blown away by his strategic mind but he certainly was fairly likeable. I just hope to God he doesn't yell during all of his confessionals. In either case, I am quite excited to see him play and hope he has a successful time. However, he will certainly be seen as a threat and may struggle to make it to the very end.

#5 Brad Culpepper

Just looking at Brad makes you think that he is a threat. That plus the fact that he has had a successful life already means that he will struggle to convince people they should keep him in the game. I am excited to see him play but I don't think he can win the game.

#6 John Cody 

Yawn. He's strong looking and clearly a smart guy but I have little to say beyond that. I'm sure he won't be the first to go but I don't see him making it deep into the game.

#7 Marissa Peterson

 

This girl has a fire in her belly and that could either work to her advantage or lead her to burn out far too early. I have my money on the latter option because she is so young.

#8 Caleb Bankston

 

Everyone can't stop talking about how charming and likeable he is but I am not buying into the hype. I would love to have him surprise me but I don't see him getting past the merge, especially if he ends up on a tribe with some returning players.

#9 Laura Boneham

 

Returning for her third time to Survivor, Laura could really be a veteran. However, she is also married to Rupert so I don't know if she has internalized all of the experiences they've had. With a bunch of macho guys on this tribe, I see her time on the island coming to a close much sooner than she hopes.

#10 Ciera Eastin

It's not just because she votes against same sex marriage that I have her ranked in the last spot but more a result of her love for her family back home. No matter how likeable she may be, I don't think she will have her head in the game. If anyone is going to quit this season my money is firmly on Ciera.

To Recap:

1. Vytas Baskauskas

2. Katie Collins

3. Rachel Foulger

4. Hayden Moss

5. Brad Culpepper

6. John Cody

7. Marissa Peterson

8. Caleb Bankston

9. Laura Boneham

10. Ciera Eastin

Returning Player Cast Assessment and Power Rankings

Despite the fact we are getting our third Fans vs. Favorites-type season, I am excited to see some of these players back again. I will give my ranking on how well I think each player will perform in the game in addition to breaking down my excitement/lack thereof to see them again.

#1 Aras Baskauskas 


I'm sure the average viewer has no idea who this guy is but that will certainly play to his advantage in the game. Even though he won the game already I don't see how that will make him a target this season. If he repeated as the Sandra 2.0 I would hardly be surprised. As a yogi myself, I can relate a lot to Aras so I wish him the best!

#2 Tina Wesson

 

Apparently I believe that past winners will do quite well this season and Tina has a better chance of gaining the same distinction as Sandra and not that of Francesca. Going into this game she really has nothing to prove so long as she isn't the first to go yet again. I hope that we can see her get a real second chance at the game and unleash her skill set on her unsuspecting tribe mates. 

#3 Tyson Apostol

 

In the case of this three-timer, I think my personal bias begins to seep through. Tyson has always been one of my favorite players, firstly because he is an avid cyclist and then later as a result of his quick wit and extremely nonchalant attitude. A Tyson victory seems somewhat unlikely but I see him doing quite well. In the worst case scenario, he upsets the older women on Galang with his humor but then he rallies on Redemption Island and comes back into the game. Fingers crossed for Tyson!

#4 Monica Culpepper

 

 Monica did little to gain my love or hatred back in One World but I feel that she is back to play a solid game this season. Getting beat by Colton certainly had to sting and now she's back for redemption (such a cliche on Survivor). I don't think it's likely that Monica will be the strategic mastermind of the season but given the right situation I can see her claiming victory at the end.

#5 Gervase Peterson

 

Of all the people returning to the game, I am most excited to see Gervase. People tend to underestimate his social game and focus too heavily on his easygoing attitude toward life and working. People also falsely associate hard work with success on Survivor. It can prove true but it isn't a hard and fast rule. I hope Gervase and Tyson can get together and set an easygoing attitude for the course of the season. 

#6 Kat Edorsson

 

Personally, I couldn't care less that Kat is back but I am very happy for her because she clearly has wanted desperately to come back since the second she was voted off. However, I fear she hasn't learned enough from last time and will not adapt to such an evolving game.

#7 Laura Morett

 

She's back? Nothing can really surprise me anymore but I would not have Laura at the top of my list of people most likely to return. Nonetheless, I think she will have a strong presence on the season because of her overbearing personality. I love when she dishes about Russell but I fear she could turn off some of her tribe mates who could be threatened by her ambition. I don't see her making it too far in the game. 

#8 Candice Cody

 

Will Candice learn this time that flipping prematurely is not always the best strategy? Possibly but I still don't think she will play her cards right this time around. She will most likely be cannon fodder before the merge hits. 

#9 Rupert Boneham

 

Congrats, Rupert! You have now played as many times as Boston Rob. Unfortunately, that doesn't translate to a victory even if your lucky number is 27. I have come to love Rupert as a character upon rewatching his time in HvV but I don't think the Survivor community as a whole embraces him in the same way. I hope for my own entertainment that he lasts a while but he'll be lucky to make the merge.

#10 Colton Cumbie

 With someone being voted out on Day 1, I think most guns will be pointed straight at Colton. Sure he may have grown as a person but I don't think people will want him around as a result of his cunning or tendency to say things that might offend. He'll be lucky to survive past the second episode.

To recap:

1. Aras Baskauskas

2. Tina Wesson

3. Tyson Apostol

4. Monica Culpepper

5. Gervase Peterson

6. Kat Edorsson

7. Laura Morett

8. Candice Cody

9. Rupert Boneham

10. Colton Cumbie

About Me & The Blog

I have been watching Survivor religiously since All-Stars and have stayed loyal to the series all along the way. As much as I enjoy watching the show, I get even more pleasure from taking about it with other fans. Tuning in every Wednesday night merely serves as a medium for later discussion. Within the framework of the show, I live for the interpersonal relationships that form and the ways people behave in such an extreme environment. I find it equally enjoyable to watch people who completely fail to understand the game (Russell Hantz) as it is to watch those who meticulously pave their way to the finishline (Brian Heidik). In either case, I prefer watching the social part of the game unfold more than listening to a plethora of strategy talk. I appreciate people who have a mind for the game but the real drama of the show comes when people's idiosyncrasies bubble to the surface. Those who can maintain a level head will always prevail as the ultimate survivor.

Additionally, I am quite a purist when it comes to the structure of the game. I do not sneer at every attempt to change the game because when done correctly they do make the show more interesting and unpredictable. However, I do not condone twists such Redemption Island that fundamentally alter the structure of the game. This kind of twist does nothing to improve the game. It neuters the finality of the torch snuff, it undermines the Survivor spiritualism that "fire represents life," it gives more power to those who are good at challenges rather than those who have the best social skills, it compels players to pursue more conservative game play and it eliminates the possibility for post-merge reward challenges where lots of game-shifting strategy talks often take place.

Despite my originalism, I tend to not disparage the show too much. I am vocal in my disdain for certain twists and ideas but I do not foresee a future where I stop watching the show. However, despite Jeff Probst's urging that "true fans" will embrace all of the changes, I want to use this platform as a way to talk candidly about the show and provide insight throughout each season. As the name of the blog implies, I will try to stay away from parroting what I hear elsewhere and provide my own "factional" viewpoint.

Thank you for reading and stay tuned through the entire Blood vs. Water season!

Tweet me @RobsFactChecker on Twitter